DoubleChecks

What was claimed

Nomura sees AI going from 10GW of data center power in 2025 to 40GW by 2028... US big tech alone goes from 10.2GW of AI capacity to 48.5GW... Memory stays supply constrained through at least 2028.

Our verdict

Needs caution

Search results confirm Nomura projects an AI cycle peak in 2028 and discuss gigawatt-level projects, but the specific 10GW→40GW figures are not found in available sources. Other firms provide different projections for this period. The available reports mention major US technology companies and other large projects, but do not confirm these specific 10.2GW and 48.5GW figures.

Combined assessment23 sourcesChecked Oct 21, 2026

Why this verdict

  • Nomura sees AI going from 10GW of data-center power in 2025 to 40GW by 2028.

    Can’t verify
    Two assessments reached this conclusion; one differed·Perplexity: Verified

  • US big tech alone goes from 10.2GW of AI capacity to 48.5GW.

    Can’t verify
    All assessments reached this conclusion

  • Memory stays supply constrained through at least 2028.

    Verified
    All assessments reached this conclusion

Evidence reviewed

23 sources

Perplexity, Claude and ChatGPT sources are combined here.

biz.heraldcorp.comx.comen.sedaily.combiz.heraldcorp.comtechnews.twnews.futunn.combiz.chosun.commk.co.krnews.futunn.comnews.futunn.com

Individual assessments

Assessment summary

  • Nomura-linked reporting supports the claim that AI-related data-center power could rise from 10GW in 2025 to 40GW in 2028, and that memory supply may remain constrained through 2028.biz.heraldcorp.com However, the specific figures for US big tech increasing from 10.2GW to 48.5GW were not confirmed by the available sources.
  • The report also appears to describe forecasts, not established facts.

Claims reviewed

US big tech alone goes from 10.2GW of AI capacity to 48.5GW.

Can’t verify
The available reports mention major US technology companies and other large projects, but do not confirm these specific 10.2GW and 48.5GW figures.biz.heraldcorp.com

Nomura sees AI going from 10GW of data-center power in 2025 to 40GW by 2028.

Verified
A report summarizing Nomura's analysis gives these exact figures for AI-related data-center electricity use.biz.heraldcorp.com

Memory stays supply constrained through at least 2028.

Verified
Multiple reports describing Nomura's outlook state that memory demand is expected to outpace supply through at least 2028.biz.heraldcorp.com x.com

Assessment summary

  • The memory constraint claim is well-supported by multiple sources.
  • However, the specific Nomura projection (10GW→40GW) cannot be verified in available sources, and the US big tech figure (48.5GW by 2028) lacks corroboration despite finding related data points like 10.2GW in 2025.

Claims reviewed

US big tech alone goes from 10.2GW of AI capacity to 48.5GW

Can’t verify
The 10.2GW figure for 2025 is confirmed by ABI Research data, but the 48.5GW endpoint cannot be verified. ABI Research projects 10.2GW in 2025 growing to 71.8GW by 2035, not 48.5GW by 2028.

Nomura sees AI going from 10GW of data center power in 2025 to 40GW by 2028

Can’t verify
Search results confirm Nomura projects an AI cycle peak in 2028 and discuss gigawatt-level projects, but the specific 10GW→40GW figures are not found in available sources. Other firms provide different projections for this period.

Memory stays supply constrained through at least 2028

Verified
Multiple authoritative sources confirm memory supply constraints persist through 2028. Micron, Samsung, and industry analysts all project tightening supply through 2027-2028, with most 2027 output already committed to customers.

Assessment summary

  • The specific GW figures attributed to Nomura and to "US big tech" could not be verified in public Nomura materials I found.
  • Multiple reputable industry sources do support the broader statement that memory (DRAM/HBM/NAND) is expected to remain supply-constrained through at least 2028.
  • Therefore the numerical claims are unverified while the memory-supply claim is supported.

Claims reviewed

US big tech alone goes from 10.2GW of AI capacity to 48.5GW.

Can’t verify
I could not find an authoritative source giving the exact 10.2GW and 48.5GW figures for "US big tech" capacity. Similar capacity-gap estimates exist in the market, but the precise numbers and attribution were not found. chaosaiagent.com chaosaiagent.com

Nomura sees AI going from 10GW of data center power in 2025 to 40GW by 2028.

Can’t verify
I could not find a Nomura report or public slide that states these exact 10GW → 40GW figures. Nomura publishes power and data-center analysis, but the precise numbers in the claim were not located in the sources searched. nomuraholdings.com nomuraholdings.com

Memory stays supply constrained through at least 2028.

Verified
Multiple memory-industry participants and analysts (Micron, Samsung, industry analysts, and trade press) state that DRAM/HBM and some NAND supply tightness is expected to persist through 2027–2028. This is widely reported across reputable sources. arstechnica.com techcrunch.com nand-research.com source unavailable

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